#1 I like the way this guy writes - quite interesting.

#1 Yet another reason to invest in Agriculture...

I think that a falling AUD will drive food costs up in Australia, due to our increased exporting demand and increased cost of importing (we import so much!).

So if you believe in a falling AUD in the future, then it seems that agriculture is a fair bet, particularly due to the Russian crisis of late.

#1 Good old Marc... Mongolia sounds like Australia's kryptonite. And don't forget about Tibet.

#3 Something occurs to me regarding this video...

If the banks can collectively control the supply of money in an organised fashion, then the 'hyperinflation' that everyone expects from money printing may not eventuate in the timeframe that people expect it. Banks could just absorb the extra money and hold it, until they decide that the country is ready for a 'boom' again.

However, a counter-point, it also occurs to me that the US will need to pay down debts...so the banks cannot hold all of this money, as a lot of it will go overseas - which will mean a devaluation of the dollar perhaps, and then hyperinflation?

The dollar as a reserve currency, with all of this debt, makes it quite an interesting problem.

...

Also...one slight criticism of this video is the lack of mention or understanding of inter-currency exchanges. In theory it would be a simple exchange rate that changes based on value...meaning Govts wouldn't want to 'create' too much money or else suffer devaluation. But in reality it might be much more complex than this video allows for.

#2 A response to the video from FOFOA:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/credibility-inflation.html?showComment=1283046804145#c1517629770097809735

#8 Talking about corruption, this is what worries us: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bikie-spy-infiltrated-police-hq-20100827-13vyz.html

In failed states like Mexico, organised crime infiltrate the many levels of government. That's why these countries become failed states.

#1 It's a very good video, but runs for almost 2hrs.

Very much worth watching IMO.

#7 I would think that such a crisis in Australia would certainly be considered a 'Black Swan' to most...

#6 It is, although it depends on your perspective. I also like to think that it shows strength in human character - eg, how people can survive huge changes like that, and get by.

I was also thinking that Gen Y's and onwards in Australia have never really experienced a recession (early childhood doesn't count), let alone any particular changes in the economy til the GFC. And then, the Australian public hasn't seen too much of an effect from that...yet. A lot of people think we avoided the GFC due to brilliant economic management by the Govt (which is a joke).

Gen Y's and onwards are feeling the pressure of inflated asset prices though (housing). But they haven't seen any kind of monetary upheaval. This leads me to believe (also from my discussion with them) that most Gen Y's and onwards think that nothing bad like that could ever happen to Australia. That all the 'bad stuff' like wars and depressions are in the past.

Which makes me believe that it is even more likely to happen, will have a bigger impact on these people (as they are unprepared), and that they won't know what to do when it does.

However, we are a different society to Argentina...we appear to have less corruption and do not expect such problems. We have low crime rates (in general) and fairly high employment (for now). Also, guns are not as common in Australia due to tight controls.

Plus, our Govt. would probably put in trade tarrifs and so-on to curb starvation. The fact that we have 3yr terms probably helps in that regard. Although, that isn't to say that it wouldn't change.

I think that in the end, regardless of where you live, people are people, human nature doesn't differ that much in times of crisis, and to assume that we would be okay here in Australia might be an oversight.

#5 Wow, what a long read. It's a depressing read though.

#4 (from http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf4.html)
This is also interesting, and I believe it has a strong parallel with Australia:

"To those that think that food will never be a problem in USA:

Come visit my country, even though there are desert areas up north, most of the country is fertile "Pampa".

Just after WWII Argentina practically fed Europe. Argentina was know in Europe as " the world's granary". Cattle and wheat was enough to feed our own country and another continent.

So, what happened? Why are there so many that have little or no food and end up eating out of dumpsters?

I mean, the land is still there, isn't it?

Well, the country is the same country that used to be called the "world's granary" but some things changed. Several big, multinational corporations, such as Benetton, bought hundreds of thousands of acres of natural resources. I don't know the exact number, but I do remember that the media started talking about the integrity of the sovereignty of the country being at risk because of these massive purchases of land, so you can imagine how many acres were bought. Mysteriously, the media suddenly dropped the subject.

Another important factor is that now, with our new economy, it's not good business to sell Argentine food to Argentina. Why sell a kg of meat to the local market for 17 pesos when they can now sell it to Spain for 17 Euros when 1 Euro = 3,5 pesos?

All this combined with high unemployment, salaries that are not enough to buy the minimal amount of calories for a typical family, and the high prices resulted in a country that slowly started to suffer hunger. "

#3 ALso:
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf2.html
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf3.html
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf4.html

#2 Note that the author recommends buying gold rings aswell as gold coins, as the gold 'buyers' would buy the gold coins only at junk gold value

#1 Also, read the comments below it, specifically:
http://www.survivalmonkey.com/forum/general-survival/2715-ferfal-some-first-hand-experience-brief-story-argentina.html#post30698

Provides more detail.

#1 A shame none of them are Australian, but this is a good find nonetheless :)

#1 The news media has a short attention span. But the problems haven't gone away at all.

I think it is best not to assume a crisis has been averted until there is proof.

#5 Good point that...I wonder what those times will be like. I'm sure there'd be plenty of pre-warning?

#4 Just a thought here... what if say the US confiscate/nationlise gold and China say decide to go into gold standard?

The US will do so when their currency is going down the drain and China will do so when they have enough gold backing.

If that happen, there will be a mad rush towards the Chinese RMB.

#3 One of the commenters made that same point. I think the counter-point was that the gold was not bought at an appropriate value, and was in fact revalued afterwards. So it wasn't a fair trade as such.

But I do agree, confiscation and nationalisation shouldn't be confused.

#2 Remember the article in http://cij.inspiriting.com/?p=697 . We have to make the distinction between nationalisation of gold and the confiscation of gold.